Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1776…1a22
world · 31 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage480d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 1 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $56 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $50 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $48 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $49 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $3 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $20 +$3 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $43 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $4 $0 +12%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $489 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $507 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $266 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $242 $0 +0%
New Hampshire vs. Binghamton Mar 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 55% −$14
world 28% +$6
other 16% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $55 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $56 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $40 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $44 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $14 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $52 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 9% -8.9%
≤90d 29 +0.1% -9.5% 41% 7% -9.3%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 7% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.63 · official $50.63 (match) · 122 history records