Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1774…2858 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+6%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$18
sports 16% +$3
politics 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.6% -4.4% 87% 20% -5.1%
≤30d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 88% 25% -4.9%
≤90d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 88% 25% -4.9%
all 17 +5.7% -4.3% 82% 24% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 24% -5.0%
10% -13.5% 6% -14.1%
15% -21.8% 0% -22.4%
20% -29.5% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage131d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $43 +$1 +3%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $42 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $36 +$3 +9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $37 −$6 -15%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $29 +$8 +26%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $37 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 +$1 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 +$2 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 $0 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$6 +22%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Jun 05 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Feb 12 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $42 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $42 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $36 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL No 96¢ $17 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 33¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL No 32¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 68¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL No 99¢ $37 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 78¢ $29 5h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $37 5h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $37 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $37 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $36 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $36 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $33 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 71¢ $33 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records