Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1773…f4e3 tech 44 markets active 33d ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$2,307 (-4%) realized −$2,300 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,184per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 74% +$6,184
world 14% −$5,249
other 11% −$3,278
politics 1% +$29
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +42.9% +29.3% 100% 100% +29.3%
≤90d 7 +8.4% -1.9% 71% 57% -1.0%
all 43 -27.9% -34.8% 49% 35% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 35% -12.6%
10% -41.0% 28% -21.0%
15% -46.7% 16% -28.6%
20% -51.9% 12% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,205) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$700 vs −$773 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$2,300
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage272d
Avg bet$1,184
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $24 $17 −$7 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $70 +$30 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 27 $46 +$4 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $55 +$40 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 08 $99 −$58 -58%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on May 08 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 14 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? Mar 01 $10 +$10 +106%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 11 $9 +$1 +18%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Dec 03 $190 −$5 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday? Nov 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 17 $1,561 −$810 -52%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 17 $1,192 −$1,192 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Nov 16 $948 −$560 -59%
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Nov 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15? Nov 15 $1,840 +$150 +8%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 15 $788 +$65 +8%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? Nov 10 $120 −$120 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Nov 10 $5,855 −$4,612 -79%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Nov 10 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? Nov 10 $673 −$673 -100%
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? Nov 10 $1,047 −$1,047 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? Nov 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Nov 10 $3,843 −$3,816 -99%
Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31? Nov 06 $30 −$21 -71%
Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31? Nov 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30? Oct 31 $45 −$45 -100%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? Oct 30 $9,343 +$26 +0%
Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on December 31? Oct 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 28 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025? Oct 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 26 $1,702 −$926 -54%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 22 $9,784 +$11,276 +115%
OpenAI browser in 2025? Oct 21 $1,820 +$429 +24%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20? Oct 21 $809 +$190 +23%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15? Oct 16 $1,205 +$611 +51%
US recession by end of 2026? Oct 10 $112 +$8 +7%
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on Oct 01 $58 +$2 +4%
US government shutdown in 2025? Oct 01 $78 +$22 +28%
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market ca Oct 01 $142 +$48 +34%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $455 +$65 +14%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Sep 30 $4,566 +$1,708 +37%
OpenAI browser by September 30? Sep 29 $3,021 −$2,675 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $55 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $11 32d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $12 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $6 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $6 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $11 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $95 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 65¢ $13 48d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $1 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 50¢ $10 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 72¢ $22 52d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $42 52d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes $0 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 44¢ $33 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $30 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $20 119d
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 166d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $99 168d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $116 208d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $5 208d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $8 208d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $12 208d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $11 208d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $33 211d
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday? BUY Yes $4 221d
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday? BUY Yes $7 221d
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday? BUY Yes $2 221d
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday? BUY Yes $1 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.81 · official $16.81 (match) · 540 history records