Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1773…c1fe crypto 487 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,642 (-13%) realized −$4,642 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%158W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,099
7 days+$1,099
14 days+$802
30 days+$802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4,322
other 2% −$215
world 1% −$9
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +157.3% +132.8% 46% 44% +15.2%
≤30d 61 +84.0% +66.5% 41% 39% +3.7%
≤90d 224 -10.5% -19.0% 28% 26% -25.9%
all 486 -6.8% -15.7% 33% 30% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 30% -22.9%
10% -23.7% 27% -30.3%
15% -31.1% 24% -37.0%
20% -37.9% 22% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$45 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,642
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses158 / 328
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)486 / 487
History coverage113d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 486 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $453 +$824 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $485 +$127 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $539 +$217 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $147 −$141 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $833 +$145 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $135 +$122 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $437 +$31 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $207 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $293 −$85 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $219 +$68 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $231 −$222 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $208 −$72 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $230 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $130 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $74 +$92 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $136 +$25 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $140 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $148 +$79 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $155 +$60 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $177 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $123 +$115 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $181 +$58 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $65 +$65 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$44 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $157 +$348 +221%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $120 +$80 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $65 +$48 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $125 −$104 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $128 +$43 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $230 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $36 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $594 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $80 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $55 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $529 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $179 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2533 history records