Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1773…42af world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
other 14% +$4
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% +$1
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.1%
all 33 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 6% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage464d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 09 $4 $0 -2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 08 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 07 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 11 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $3 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $37 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $37 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $2 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $36 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $38 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 9¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.61 · official $35.61 (match) · 105 history records