Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1771…dbde sports 616 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$311 (-3%) realized −$319 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%280W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$41
14 days−$53
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$348
other 9% −$81
crypto 0% +$20
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.9% -23.9% 55% 27% -15.7%
≤30d 257 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 26% -14.4%
≤90d 614 -10.2% -18.7% 46% 31% -13.5%
all 614 -10.2% -18.7% 46% 31% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 31% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 21% -21.8%
15% -33.6% 14% -29.4%
20% -40.1% 10% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses280 / 334
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)614 / 616
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 614 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Galions 53¢ 100¢ $11 $20 +$10 (+90%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Galions 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $43 +$6 +15%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$4 +14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$3 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14 +$4 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$3 -20%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$13 +51%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$2 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$11 -68%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $69 −$1 -1%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$2 -14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $56 +$9 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $74 −$52 -70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$5 -14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$5 -21%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $22 +$1 +6%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $4 $0 +5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $21 $0 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $26 +$1 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $4 $0 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7 −$1 -13%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $8 $0 -2%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $36 −$12 -33%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 $0 -4%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $29 −$1 -3%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $4 $0 -4%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $3 $0 -9%
Will Haiti vs. Peru end in a draw? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -25%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $9 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $4 $0 -9%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $12 $0 -3%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 05 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 28¢ $1 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 71¢ $4 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 72¢ $4 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 29¢ $1 44m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 38¢ $2 52m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 66¢ $3 54m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 95¢ $5 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 66¢ $3 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 33¢ $2 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 27¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 40¢ $2 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 58¢ $3 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 93¢ $9 17h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 87¢ $10 17h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 86¢ $10 17h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 90¢ $10 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 66¢ $3 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 89¢ $11 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 96¢ $5 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 93¢ $10 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 64¢ $3 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 85¢ $8 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 76¢ $4 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $3 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 48¢ $7 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 35¢ $2 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 73¢ $11 20h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $3 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 88¢ $11 29h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 57¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.06 · official $25.06 (match) · 3441 history records