Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x176e…dbe1 sports 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$189 (-5%) realized −$171 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate63%256W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$3
14 days−$47
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$117
other 20% −$108
world 3% +$18
politics 1% −$16
finance 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +11.2% +0.6% 56% 56% -8.9%
≤30d 183 +11.6% +1.0% 57% 43% -9.8%
≤90d 408 +2.3% -7.5% 63% 39% -14.2%
all 408 +2.3% -7.5% 63% 39% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 39% -14.2%
10% -16.3% 25% -22.4%
15% -24.4% 18% -29.9%
20% -31.8% 14% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses256 / 152
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions6
Markets (closed)408 / 416
History coverage89d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Over 24¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +88%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$12 +57%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $2 +$5 +257%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 −$3 -11%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $8 +$4 +48%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 +$8 +377%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 +$6 +114%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $3 +$3 +108%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 +$8 +165%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$3 +60%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $3 +$6 +206%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $11 +$4 +34%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$6 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Raphinha: 2+ goals Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $2 −$1 -51%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 10h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 10h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $6 10h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 12h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $32 32h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 41¢ $7 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 34h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $2 36h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 36h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $22 36h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $8 2d
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $13 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 24¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.03 · official $56.03 (match) · 852 history records