Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x176e…19f8 sports 1547 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$458 (-20%) realized −$458 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate69%1075W / 472L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$30
14 days−$32
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$72
weather 25% −$8
crypto 6% +$4
other 2% −$11
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 15% -18.6%
≤30d 718 -3.2% -12.4% 66% 24% -14.2%
≤90d 1547 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 25% -13.1%
all 1547 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 25% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 25% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 13% -21.4%
15% -28.2% 8% -29.0%
20% -35.2% 5% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$458
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1075 / 472
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1547 / 1547
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1547 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -76%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $3 −$2 -60%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $3 −$1 -29%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $3 −$2 -50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Gauff Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 96¢ $1 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 71¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 96¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 87¢ $1 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 94¢ $1 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 62¢ $3 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 64¢ $3 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 86¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova SELL Hernan Casanova 100¢ $3 4h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 92¢ $3 4h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 99¢ $4 6h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 82¢ $3 7h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 70¢ $2 7h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 91¢ $3 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser SELL Valentina Ryser 100¢ $3 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 20¢ $1 10h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 18¢ $1 10h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 21¢ $1 10h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 30¢ $2 10h
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 90¢ $3 10h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Thanasi Kokkinakis 63¢ $2 10h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 92¢ $3 11h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea SELL Elena Ruxandra Bertea 34¢ $1 12h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Elina Svitolina 99¢ $3 12h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 82¢ $3 12h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 92¢ $3 12h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel SELL Arthur Fery 99¢ $3 13h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 88¢ $3 14h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 99¢ $3 14h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 92¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records