Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1764…6c76 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$6
sports 33% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 43% -7.1%
≤30d 7 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 43% -7.1%
≤90d 7 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 43% -7.1%
all 7 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 43% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 43% -7.1%
10% -25.1% 29% -16.0%
15% -32.3% 29% -24.1%
20% -38.9% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 61¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +156%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $3 59m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 28h
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.23 · official $5.23 (match) · 13 history records