Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1757…4a8d other 90 markets active 6d ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$639 (+8%) realized +$636 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate64%53W / 30L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$622
other 30% +$7
weather 5% +$17
finance 1% +$4
tech 1% +$17
crypto 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -6.3% -15.2% 73% 36% -9.2%
≤90d 30 +7.8% -2.4% 77% 33% -8.6%
all 83 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 37% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 37% -1.7%
10% -20.1% 20% -11.1%
15% -27.8% 14% -19.7%
20% -34.9% 13% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$636
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses53 / 30
Open positions7
Markets (closed)83 / 90
History coverage463d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 08 $140 +$7 +5%
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 08 $22 +$2 +7%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 06 $2 +$1 +58%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 29 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $37 −$10 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 27 $17 −$16 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 27 $67 $0 +0%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? May 25 $364 +$17 +5%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $63 +$9 +14%
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following May 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele May 13 $26 +$5 +20%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 12 $219 +$7 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $56 +$3 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $87 −$40 -46%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $30 −$21 -69%
Will 260 to 289 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? May 11 $2 +$7 +420%
Will 170 to 199 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? May 08 $83 +$9 +11%
Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026 May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? May 06 $21 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $15 +$1 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? Apr 27 $49 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $13 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 Apr 16 $244 +$32 +13%
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? Apr 07 $209 +$6 +3%
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? Mar 30 $47 +$6 +14%
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Mar 26 $50 +$6 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Mar 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Feb 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February? Feb 26 $21 −$19 -91%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 25 $3 +$7 +203%
Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? Jan 28 $5 −$4 -72%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 13? Jan 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? Jan 13 $40 +$26 +65%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $10 −$8 -81%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8? Jan 09 $10 +$18 +182%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7? Jan 07 $10 +$9 +95%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $290 before 2026?? Jan 07 $72 +$17 +23%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada by November 30? Dec 02 $69 +$1 +2%
Another Canada election called in 2025? Nov 27 $68 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 82¢ $22 6d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 81¢ $8 6d
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 BUY Yes 15¢ $6 6d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 81¢ $35 6d
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 BUY Yes 27¢ $2 6d
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 66¢ $8 6d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 80¢ $12 6d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $76 7d
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate SELL Yes 86¢ $3 11d
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate BUY Yes 53¢ $2 11d
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 74¢ $53 14d
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 73¢ $18 14d
Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 14d
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $15 14d
Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $7 14d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? SELL Up 55¢ $6 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? BUY Up 43¢ $5 15d
Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 18d
Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? SELL Yes 74¢ $26 18d
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $13 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 20d
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 20d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? BUY No 66¢ $10 20d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August? BUY No 77¢ $8 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.42 · official $239.42 (match) · 378 history records