Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1755…a572 sports 1371 markets active 1d ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+0%) realized +$127 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate68%931W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$56
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$124
sports 46% +$22
politics 3% +$98
world 2% +$36
tech 0% +$17
crypto 0% −$15
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -1.3% -10.7% 65% 65% -6.6%
≤30d 109 +6.8% -3.3% 71% 71% +2.2%
≤90d 675 +2.6% -7.1% 65% 64% -6.7%
all 1363 +1.9% -7.8% 68% 65% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 65% -9.2%
10% -16.7% 48% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 27% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses931 / 432
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1363 / 1371
History coverage521d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $33 $14 −$19 (-56%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 +$4 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $17 +$3 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 +$6 +40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 +$7 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 +$6 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $14 +$6 +40%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +57%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +26%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $8 +$2 +18%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $7 +$3 +38%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $8 +$2 +29%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $16 +$4 +29%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $21 +$39 +184%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $6 +$4 +60%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $7 +$3 +46%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $12 +$8 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $16 29h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $17 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $8 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $14 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $14 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $13 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $16 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $16 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.60 · official $77.60 (match) · 3324 history records