Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
17 0x1752…9aba sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$106
other 48% −$114
world 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 53 +8.8% -1.6% 49% 42% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 42% -10.0%
10% -11.0% 34% -18.6%
15% -19.6% 32% -26.5%
20% -27.5% 28% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage535d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? Dec 06 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? Dec 06 $37 +$8 +20%
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01? Nov 05 $13 +$2 +19%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? Nov 05 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? Nov 05 $23 +$6 +27%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? Oct 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? Oct 30 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2025-09-07? Oct 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-22? Oct 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? Oct 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2025-09-07? Sep 11 $16 +$9 +56%
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Jul 16 $16 +$30 +186%
Magic vs. Celtics May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets May 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23? May 02 $12 +$28 +245%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-11? Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-03-11? Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? Apr 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-18? Feb 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Feb 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Hornets vs. Clippers Feb 18 $15 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? Feb 18 $30 +$43 +144%
Thunder vs. Wizards Jan 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Supercopa Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Jan 14 $13 +$13 +100%
Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Chargers vs. Texans Jan 12 $18 +$27 +150%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Jan 11 $32 −$6 -20%
Heat vs. Jazz Jan 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jan 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights Jan 11 $14 +$23 +163%
Suns vs. Hornets Jan 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Hawks vs. Jazz Jan 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 09 $12 +$26 +212%
Capitals vs. Sabres Jan 07 $21 +$28 +133%
Celtics vs. Thunder Jan 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Jan 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-05? Jan 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Jan 06 $23 +$2 +9%
Knicks vs. Bulls Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bucks Jan 05 $10 +$61 +614%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bruins vs. Rangers Jan 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Clippers vs. Thunder Jan 03 $15 +$3 +22%
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Jan 03 $20 +$12 +61%
Nets vs. Bucks Jan 03 $10 +$63 +614%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Jan 02 $19 +$11 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? BUY No 87¢ $26 224d
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? BUY No 83¢ $37 224d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-11-05? BUY No 90¢ $52 224d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? BUY No 73¢ $20 229d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 229d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes $12 231d
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? BUY No 79¢ $23 231d
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 239d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? BUY No 16¢ $15 239d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-22? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 239d
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? BUY No 14¢ $10 250d
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? BUY No 15¢ $10 250d
Will Germany win on 2025-09-07? BUY No 16¢ $11 283d
Will Spain win on 2025-09-07? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 283d
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies BUY Rockies 35¢ $16 361d
Warriors vs. Rockets BUY Warriors 40¢ $25 421d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23? BUY No 29¢ $12 421d
Magic vs. Celtics BUY Magic 18¢ $11 421d
Will Inter win on 2025-03-11? BUY No 28¢ $16 463d
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 463d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? BUY No 31¢ $18 463d
Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $23 484d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 29¢ $29 520d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? BUY No 41¢ $30 520d
Thunder vs. Wizards BUY Thunder 93¢ $14 522d
Supercopa Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 50¢ $13 522d
Hornets vs. Clippers BUY Hornets 49¢ $15 523d
Chargers vs. Texans BUY Texans 40¢ $18 523d
Steelers vs. Ravens BUY Steelers 19¢ $15 523d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.13 · official $45.13 (match) · 105 history records