Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x174e…b3c0 crypto 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23,643 (-7%) realized −$23,597 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%21W / 55L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,202per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$32,494
other 4% +$10,397
politics 1% −$96
sports 0% −$573
world 0% −$756
economics 0% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 76 -31.0% -37.6% 28% 21% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.6% 21% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -43.6% 17% -24.1%
15% -49.0% 13% -31.4%
20% -54.0% 11% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$7,135) neutral
Persistence
early -34% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,952 vs −$1,557 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$23,597
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage594d
Avg bet$4,202
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $8 −$18 (-70%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 2¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 26 $12,411 −$11,361 -92%
North Korea missile launch by January 31? Jan 26 $583 −$583 -100%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the Jan 26 $502 +$8 +2%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 19 $75 −$2 -2%
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 18 $3,615 +$3,798 +105%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $6,073 +$7,795 +128%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Nov 27 $1,245 −$1,116 -90%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 30 $82 +$6 +8%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29? Oct 29 $40 −$16 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 21 $11,723 −$10,763 -92%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August? Aug 12 $7,519 +$2,750 +37%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 10 $6,946 +$573 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 23 $7,439 −$3,895 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 14 $11,092 −$1,714 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K before July 14? Jul 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K before July 14? Jul 14 $7,135 +$3,957 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1? Jul 14 $16,869 −$16,777 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 24-30? Jun 30 $188 −$188 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27? Jun 27 $16,704 +$4,997 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 12 $2,000 −$439 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June? Jun 09 $10,382 +$9,918 +96%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? May 30 $20,823 +$2,560 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May? May 21 $23,858 +$7,971 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May? May 09 $8,453 +$4,407 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in May? May 08 $14,619 +$2,405 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 01 $538 +$43 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 25 $2,960 −$115 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95k in April? Apr 25 $11,537 +$1,306 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 22 $54 −$48 -88%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 22 $570 −$424 -74%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $1,885 −$1,630 -86%
Will GameStop purchase Bitcoin by April 1? Apr 01 $43 −$35 -82%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Mar 26 $25 −$23 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $922 −$879 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 24 $476 −$169 -36%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $58 −$25 -43%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $9 −$1 -10%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Mar 19 $34 −$19 -55%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Mar 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $50 −$46 -93%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Mar 09 $5,757 +$3,090 +54%
Will Donald Trump say "Moon" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 08 $140 −$66 -47%
Will Donald Trump say "Milady" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday Mar 07 $291 −$15 -5%
Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Crypto Mar 07 $100 −$17 -17%
Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $119 −$119 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $27 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes 2¢ $201 116d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes 3¢ $275 116d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes 2¢ $141 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes 21¢ $433 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 19¢ $416 127d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $416 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,107 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,799 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $307 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $3,240 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 42¢ $52 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $2,629 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.38 · official $9.38 (match) · 495 history records