Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1747…4afc sports 497 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,206 (-4%) realized −$3,936 · open −$270
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%209W / 282L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1,952est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,714
other 1% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +4.6% -5.3% 38% 31% -37.3%
≤30d 407 -14.7% -22.8% 36% 34% -28.7%
≤90d 491 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 40% -15.1%
all 491 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 40% -15.1%
10% -18.2% 37% -23.2%
15% -26.1% 31% -30.6%
20% -33.3% 24% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$152 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized−$3,936
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses209 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,952
Open positions6
Markets (closed)491 / 497
History coverage56d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 77¢ 100¢ $200 $260 +$60 (+30%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Max Basing 41¢ 83¢ $56 $113 +$58 (+104%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet Alexis Galarneau 21¢ 16¢ $127 $97 −$30 (-23%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Tom Gentzsch 18¢ 17¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Oceane Dodin 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Niels McDonald 45¢ 51¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Inner Circle 19¢ 0¢ $295 $1 −$295 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $39 +$38 +98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$22 +11%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $360 −$14 -4%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $159 +$205 +128%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $191 −$187 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $405 −$400 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $88 +$30 +34%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $203 −$10 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $200 −$27 -13%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $340 −$334 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $132 −$29 -22%
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Veronika Erjavec: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $40 +$19 +48%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $303 +$165 +54%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $305 +$306 +100%
Solana Sierra vs. Anna Blinkova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $274 −$57 -21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $305 −$17 -6%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $304 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $207 −$8 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $305 −$22 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $315 −$309 -98%
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $79 −$78 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $504 −$500 -99%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $222 +$24 +11%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $447 −$361 -81%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $400 −$193 -48%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $731 −$148 -20%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $231 +$20 +9%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $395 +$529 +134%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stag Jun 17 $61 +$39 +64%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $312 +$16 +5%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $141 +$6 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $316 −$21 -7%
Fiona Ferro vs. Ekaterine Gorgodze: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $122 +$6 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $204 +$25 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $395 −$388 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Buse Jun 17 $19 −$18 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $157 −$153 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $320 −$20 -6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $229 −$225 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $506 +$356 +70%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $101 −$21 -21%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $16 +$34 +216%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $33 +$38 +115%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $54 +$59 +109%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $64 +$450 +708%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $504 +$162 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Alexis Galarneau 20¢ $18 1m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Alexis Galarneau 21¢ $56 1m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Alexis Galarneau 21¢ $56 1m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin BUY Oceane Dodin 26¢ $11 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 18¢ $46 10m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 18¢ $46 10m
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 77¢ $201 37m
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Niels McDonald 45¢ $3 44m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Max Basing 43¢ $152 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Max Basing 41¢ $150 53m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Max Basing 40¢ $56 53m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 16¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 16¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 16¢ $43 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 21¢ $57 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 20¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 20¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 22¢ $59 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z Team 50¢ $39 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 90¢ $201 13h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 46¢ $183 15h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 49¢ $203 15h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 48¢ $170 15h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 39¢ $143 15h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 71¢ $14 15h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $364 15h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 43¢ $159 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $99 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $203 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $203 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.48 · official $570.25 (match) · 1302 history records