Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1746…7ae4 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-6%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate73%70W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -7.4% -16.2% 74% 29% -15.4%
≤30d 96 -8.7% -17.4% 73% 29% -16.7%
≤90d 96 -8.7% -17.4% 73% 29% -16.7%
all 96 -8.7% -17.4% 73% 29% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 29% -16.7%
10% -25.3% 9% -24.6%
15% -32.5% 5% -31.9%
20% -39.1% 2% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses70 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records