Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1743…158d
crypto · 65 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$853 -46%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$852 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$268
Realized−$852
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses41 / 13
Open positions11
Markets (closed)54 / 65
History coverage73d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 11 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$852
7 days−$852
14 days−$852
30 days−$852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 73¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$20 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $1,142 −$850 -74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 61% −$850
crypto 22% −$5
other 15% −$4
world 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -1.5% -10.9% 76% 26% -58.9%
≤30d 51 -1.4% -10.8% 76% 25% -58.5%
≤90d 54 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 26% -57.8%
all 54 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 26% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 26% -57.8%
10% -19.3% 17% -61.8%
15% -27.1% 11% -65.5%
20% -34.2% 9% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.47 · official $268.48 (match) · 194 history records