Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1742…b85c crypto 486 markets active 15h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%278W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 44% +5.5%
≤30d 17 +5.3% -4.7% 59% 47% +4.6%
≤90d 43 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 37% -2.9%
all 486 -3.9% -13.0% 57% 48% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 48% -8.0%
10% -21.3% 41% -16.8%
15% -28.9% 35% -24.8%
20% -35.9% 28% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses278 / 208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)486 / 486
History coverage143d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 486 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$11 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 -21%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$1 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 30 $2 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 28 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 27 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 25 $2 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 24 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 32d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 32d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 59d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1039 history records