Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x173c…029c other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate21%9W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$20
world 37% −$2
culture 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
politics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$2
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 11 -1.3% -10.7% 18% 0% -10.6%
all 42 -2.2% -11.5% 21% 5% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 5% -12.3%
10% -20.0% 5% -20.7%
15% -27.7% 2% -28.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage268d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $47 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $42 −$3 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $22 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $22 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $2 $0 -13%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $4 +$2 +35%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 18 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $47 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $47 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $24 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $24 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $39 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $38 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $17 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $15 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 2¢ $4 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $11 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $11 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $22 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $18 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $22 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.58 · official $47.58 (match) · 146 history records