Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
17 0x173c…52c8 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 669d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,139 (+26%) realized +$1,143 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%49W / 35L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$83
14 days+$589
30 days+$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$1,035
sports 30% +$85
crypto 2% +$57
politics 2% $0
economics 2% −$65
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.2% -3.0% 75% 75% -4.4%
≤30d 9 +38.2% +25.0% 56% 56% +13.6%
≤90d 16 +57.2% +42.3% 62% 62% +20.2%
all 84 +30.6% +18.1% 58% 57% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.1% 57% +15.0%
10% +6.8% 55% +4.0%
15% -3.5% 49% -6.0%
20% -13.0% 45% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$47 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

669d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$1,143
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses49 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage669d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 33¢ 32¢ $281 $277 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $292 +$159 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $266 +$152 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $329 −$326 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $574 +$98 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $256 +$994 +388%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $390 −$388 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 10 $31 +$69 +226%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina Kalinina May 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 10 $18 +$23 +129%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik Apr 16 $19 +$22 +114%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 09 $19 +$30 +158%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Apr 05 $37 +$51 +138%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 26 $50 +$116 +233%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Mar 12 $49 +$50 +104%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Mar 07 $62 +$93 +150%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 26 $39 +$100 +257%
Murray State Racers vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Feb 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 25 $98 −$49 -50%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 25 $53 +$87 +163%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jan 07 $43 +$90 +212%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 14 $24 +$58 +245%
Giants vs. Patriots Dec 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 27 $40 +$92 +233%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Clippers vs. Suns Nov 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 06 $18 +$37 +203%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota Oct 27 $19 +$43 +223%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 17 $14 +$12 +85%
Panthers vs. Flyers Oct 17 $19 +$26 +138%
Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? Sep 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 29 $16 +$18 +108%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? Sep 23 $18 +$6 +37%
Colorado vs. Houston Sep 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Brewers vs. Pirates Sep 05 $18 −$18 -100%
TCU vs. North Carolina Sep 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Benfica win on 2025-08-27? Sep 01 $11 +$7 +67%
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Aug 27 $14 +$10 +72%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 19 $12 +$10 +79%
Guardians vs. Mets Aug 12 $12 +$18 +156%
Orioles vs. Guardians Aug 06 $16 +$11 +64%
Phillies vs. Yankees Jul 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jul 22 $11 +$4 +32%
Red Sox vs. Nationals Jul 12 $13 +$5 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $287 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $292 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $266 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $329 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $574 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $96 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $390 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $256 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $75 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 23d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Panna Udvardy 31¢ $11 31d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 43d
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $18 67d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 46¢ $19 74d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 78d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $37 88d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 93d
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs BUY Ducks 49¢ $71 101d
Knicks vs. Nuggets BUY Knicks 49¢ $49 107d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? BUY No 40¢ $62 116d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? BUY No 28¢ $39 125d
Murray State Racers vs. Southern Illinois Salukis BUY Southern Illinois Salukis 47¢ $64 135d
Rockets vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 34¢ $26 140d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $49 148d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $98 150d
Rockets vs. Pistons BUY Rockets 38¢ $53 150d
Raptors vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 46¢ $62 165d
Vikings vs. Cowboys BUY Vikings 32¢ $43 189d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Spurs 29¢ $24 193d
Giants vs. Patriots BUY Giants 25¢ $27 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.23 · official $277.23 (match) · 163 history records