Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x173a…584c
sports · 997 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$220 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$225 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$146
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses484 / 491
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions22
Markets (closed)975 / 997
History coverage33d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day54.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 22 History 975 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$6
14 days−$22
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp Blue 65¢ 68¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 78¢ 71¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 60¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+67%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+41%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 84¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+39%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 88¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 71¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 77¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 79¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp Blue 69¢ 69¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Eintracht Spandau 68¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Eintracht Spandau 68¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 81¢ 77¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Eintracht Spandau 79¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 75¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$3 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$3 -26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$3 +55%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +65%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $13 +$3 +25%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $6 −$2 -30%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $12 +$9 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +31%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $6 +$3 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $6 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $12 −$2 -19%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +31%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $6 −$3 -50%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$5 -86%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $12 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$128
crypto 19% −$69
other 8% +$20
world 5% −$21
weather 3% −$5
politics 1% −$1
finance 1% −$8
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 71¢ $6 4m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 68¢ $6 10m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 69¢ $6 16m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 81¢ $6 20m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $6 41m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 82¢ $5 45m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 82¢ $2 45m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $2 46m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 67¢ $6 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 64¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 1h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 69¢ $6 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 84¢ $7 2h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 69¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I SELL No 80¢ $4 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $6 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 63¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 83¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 74¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 1 Winner BUY cincai team 69¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $6 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $5 4h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 62¢ $5 4h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 68¢ $6 4h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 68¢ $6 4h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 79¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 53% -10.3%
≤30d 904 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 46% -14.7%
≤90d 975 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 45% -14.7%
all 975 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 45% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 45% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 39% -22.8%
15% -30.0% 26% -30.3%
20% -36.8% 17% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.35 · official $146.35 (match) · 3500 history records