Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1738…0209 sports 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$3
other 22% −$4
politics 18% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
world 6% −$1
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.6%
all 166 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage168d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $38 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 26 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 18 $31 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $37 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $37 1h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $38 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? SELL No 97¢ $29 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY No 98¢ $30 13d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $32 27d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $31 27d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $37 123d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 123d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 123d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $15 123d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? SELL No 98¢ $29 123d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $15 123d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? SELL No 98¢ $11 123d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $39 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 123d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 94¢ $4 123d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $37 123d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $37 123d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 94¢ $39 123d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 94¢ $43 123d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 123d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 123d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 123d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 123d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 123d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 561 history records