Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
17 0x1736…6bdc sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$10
politics 32% $0
crypto 17% −$2
other 2% +$1
world 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.4% +0.8% 100% 25% -8.4%
≤30d 4 +11.4% +0.8% 100% 25% -8.4%
≤90d 11 -3.5% -12.7% 91% 18% -8.9%
all 35 -7.1% -15.9% 74% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 17% -9.6%
10% -24.0% 6% -18.3%
15% -31.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage208d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 24 $1 $0 +44%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 24 $22 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 21 $71 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves Apr 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 18 $15 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Spurs Feb 27 $2 +$1 +37%
Nets vs. Cavaliers Feb 27 $3 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026 Feb 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026 Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Feb 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 17 $2,034 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $420 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jan 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $2,026 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jan 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jan 18 $3 +$1 +19%
Thunder vs. Heat Jan 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 17 $29 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $10 34d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $15 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $12 34d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 34d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $1 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $1 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $71 68d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $12 68d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 98d
Jazz vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 88¢ $5 98d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 98d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 117d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 117d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 100¢ $15 117d
Suns vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $2 127d
Nets vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 87¢ $3 127d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $15 127d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 127d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 127d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 127d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 156d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $2,012 156d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $2,034 156d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $420 156d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1,603 156d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $1,605 156d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $420 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.36 · official $115.36 (match) · 284 history records