Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

17 0x1736…ffca sports 21 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$899 (-11%) realized −$899 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$384per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$132est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-18.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-10.3%	-18.8%	43%	43%	-24.0%
≤30d	21	-10.3%	-18.8%	43%	43%	-24.0%
≤90d	21	-10.3%	-18.8%	43%	43%	-24.0%
all	21	-10.3%	-18.8%	43%	43%	-24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.8%	43%	-24.0%
10%	-26.6%	43%	-31.3%
15%	-33.7%	43%	-37.9%
20%	-40.2%	43%	-44.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +21% → late -39% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$295 vs −$328 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$899

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$132

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage4d

Avg bet$384

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox	Jun 24	$335	−$330	-99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5	Jun 24	$472	−$465	-98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants	Jun 24	$242	+$135	+56%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres	Jun 23	$339	−$339	-100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5	Jun 23	$357	−$18	-5%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers	Jun 22	$784	−$427	-54%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$608	−$600	-99%
Barcelona vs. Valencia	Jun 22	$506	+$314	+62%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$406	−$400	-98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5	Jun 21	$356	−$350	-98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$305	+$347	+114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5	Jun 21	$508	+$491	+97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$203	−$200	-98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5	Jun 21	$507	+$419	+83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$496	−$213	-43%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5	Jun 21	$302	+$212	+70%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos	Jun 21	$305	+$303	+100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins	Jun 21	$270	−$265	-98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$94	+$94	+101%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$325	+$341	+105%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Jun 21	$337	−$333	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Chicago White Sox	55¢	$335	3h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	49¢	$472	10h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants	SELL Lotte Giants	100¢	$377	10h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants	BUY Lotte Giants	63¢	$242	13h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres	BUY Atlanta Braves	49¢	$339	47h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5	SELL Over	47¢	$339	47h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	48¢	$357	2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers	SELL New York Yankees	25¢	$356	2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers	BUY New York Yankees	53¢	$784	2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	55¢	$608	2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia	SELL Valencia	100¢	$820	2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia	BUY Valencia	61¢	$506	2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$406	2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	47¢	$356	3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$651	3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$305	3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5	SELL Over	100¢	$999	3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$203	3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5	BUY Over	50¢	$508	3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	36¢	$283	3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	54¢	$507	3d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5	SELL Over	100¢	$513	3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	62¢	$496	3d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5	BUY Over	58¢	$302	3d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos	SELL SSG Landers	100¢	$608	3d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos	BUY SSG Landers	49¢	$305	3d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins	BUY Doosan Bears	42¢	$270	3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$188	3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	49¢	$94	3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$666	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records