Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x1733…1e15 sports 1684 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$58,850 (+12%) realized +$60,012 · open −$1,162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%899W / 1061L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$3,457est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$21,874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$37,256
other 4% −$138
politics 1% −$1,454
world 1% +$188
tech 0% +$150
finance 0% −$200
crypto 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -87.5% -88.7% 7% 7% -92.6%
≤30d 469 -62.7% -66.2% 20% 20% -73.1%
≤90d 1525 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 43% -24.9%
all 1960 -12.8% -21.1% 46% 45% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 45% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 43% -29.3%
15% -35.5% 39% -36.1%
20% -41.8% 32% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$271 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$21,874
Realized+$60,012
Unrealized−$1,162
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses899 / 1061
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,457
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1960 / 1684
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$296
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 1960 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $6,937 $7,415 +$478 (+7%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 95¢ $5,594 $6,212 +$618 (+11%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,423 $1,486 +$63 (+4%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $880 $904 +$24 (+3%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $708 $821 +$113 (+16%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 77¢ 67¢ $848 $738 −$110 (-13%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Ann Li 63¢ 64¢ $656 $671 +$16 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $486 $498 +$12 (+2%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 80¢ 97¢ $401 $489 +$87 (+22%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $425 $483 +$58 (+14%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $457 $461 +$3 (+1%)
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $1,728 $274 −$1,454 (-84%)
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims) Michael Aswell 74¢ 78¢ $214 $224 +$10 (+5%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? No 82¢ 85¢ $208 $215 +$8 (+4%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 14¢ $762 $108 −$654 (-86%)
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 80¢ $74 $94 +$20 (+27%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 65¢ 96¢ $55 $82 +$26 (+47%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Taylah Preston 40¢ 36¢ $88 $78 −$10 (-11%)
Will Ethena reach $0.36 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 80¢ $62 $70 +$8 (+13%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Under 17¢ 17¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 466 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Penguins vs. Red Wings Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks: O/U 148.5 Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jun 18 $343 −$343 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez Jun 18 $318 −$318 -100%
Hampton Pirates vs. Stony Brook Seawolves Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Panthers Jun 18 $510 −$510 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Sho Shimabukuro vs Alex Molcan Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Tulane Green Wave vs. Memphis Tigers: O/U 149.5 Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Seattle Redhawks Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Magic (-4.5) Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5 Jun 18 $447 −$447 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 18 $351 −$351 -100%
Lightning vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-8.5) Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. VCU Rams Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 150.5 Jun 18 $299 −$299 -100%
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-15.5) Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5 Jun 18 $618 −$618 -100%
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. St. Bonaventure Bonnies: O/U 148.5 Jun 18 $315 −$315 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5 Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 18 $186 −$186 -100%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-14.5) Jun 18 $236 −$236 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Daria Kasatki Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5 Jun 18 $1,910 −$1,910 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 49.5 Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Southern Jaguars vs. Texas Southern Tigers Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 Jun 18 $472 −$472 -100%
Argentina Open, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Thiago Seyboth Wil Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (-2.5) Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Merida Open Akron, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Lia Karatancheva Jun 18 $225 −$225 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5 Jun 18 $627 −$627 -100%
Wizards vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Heat (-9.5) Jun 18 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Devils: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
ASB Classic: Nuno Borges vs Eliot Spizzirri Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5 Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Marcos Giron vs Casper Ruud Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Miami (OH) RedHawks (-9.5) Jun 18 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5) Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $60 6m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $60 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $20 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $60 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $60 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 88¢ $60 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $60 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $20 24h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $40 25h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 63¢ $663 25h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 57¢ $39 25h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $102 25h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $205 25h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 40¢ $90 25h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 60¢ $257 25h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill BUY Otto Virtanen 79¢ $353 28h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 70¢ $19 38h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 60¢ $25 45h
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? BUY No 90¢ $88 45h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 57¢ $596 2d
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 71¢ $278 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 52¢ $380 3d
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 52¢ $460 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 56¢ $44 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $93 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,873.51 · official $21,873.10 (match) · 3500 history records