Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1733…9411 world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,901 (+4%) realized +$1,331 · open +$570
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%42W / 29L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$519per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$12,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$313
7 days+$1,353
14 days+$3,644
30 days+$3,611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1,580
politics 23% +$60
tech 9% +$461
other 6% −$41
finance 2% +$170
sports 1% −$284
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 50% +1.9%
≤30d 30 +13.4% +2.6% 70% 57% +3.1%
≤90d 54 -1.3% -10.7% 65% 50% -2.1%
all 71 -9.9% -18.5% 59% 45% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 45% -5.9%
10% -26.3% 32% -14.9%
15% -33.4% 18% -23.1%
20% -40.0% 10% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$539) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$172 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$12,363
Realized+$1,331
Unrealized+$570
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses42 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)71 / 92
History coverage135d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 67¢ 76¢ $2,256 $2,588 +$332 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 73¢ $2,230 $2,190 −$40 (-2%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? Yes 80¢ 91¢ $1,187 $1,356 +$169 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,274 $1,323 +$49 (+4%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 61¢ 65¢ $719 $765 +$46 (+6%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $626 $683 +$57 (+9%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 71¢ 87¢ $413 $504 +$91 (+22%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 71¢ 58¢ $570 $470 −$100 (-18%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 70¢ 94¢ $342 $457 +$115 (+34%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $335 $403 +$67 (+20%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 67¢ 52¢ $478 $369 −$108 (-23%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 32¢ 48¢ $160 $237 +$77 (+48%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $192 $210 +$18 (+9%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 71¢ 89¢ $147 $184 +$37 (+25%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $136 $163 +$27 (+20%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 51¢ 38¢ $192 $142 −$50 (-26%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 88¢ 94¢ $123 $130 +$8 (+6%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $159 $120 −$39 (-25%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 80¢ 96¢ $23 $27 +$5 (+20%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $148 $22 −$126 (-85%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $82 $17 −$65 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $407 +$160 +39%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,058 +$142 +13%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $541 +$604 +112%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $58 +$18 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $902 −$612 -68%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 20 $1,543 +$104 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,732 −$10 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,776 +$1,221 +32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $496 −$46 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $228 −$228 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $494 +$836 +169%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4,874 +$356 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,287 +$834 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $97 +$53 +55%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $212 −$154 -73%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $574 +$135 +24%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $123 +$66 +54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $842 +$213 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $929 +$406 +44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $441 +$109 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,791 −$113 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $616 +$136 +22%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $410 +$60 +15%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,069 −$286 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "Drone" during WHCA Dinner events? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Clavicular arrested again by April 30? Jun 03 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 Jun 03 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by April 30? Jun 03 $13 +$17 +133%
Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 27 $33 −$31 -95%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 27 $266 +$14 +5%
Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 27 $314 +$27 +8%
Will Donald Trump be the first substitute White House Press Secretary? Apr 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 26 $600 +$10 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 24 $539 −$539 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +15%
Will Trump say "Paper tiger" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 24 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 24 $22 +$8 +36%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 24 $109 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? (April 19) Apr 24 $78 +$131 +167%
Will Trump say "Drug" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 18 $25 +$7 +30%
Will Trump say "Patriot" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 14 $256 −$256 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 14 $248 +$38 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 14 $390 −$390 -100%
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? Apr 07 $346 −$10 -3%
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $146 +$54 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $88 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $89 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $5 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $7 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $9 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $5 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $476 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $290 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $40 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $12 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $26 2h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 61¢ $719 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $770 13h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $658 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $121 37h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 34¢ $105 42h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 42h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 30¢ $149 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $202 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $300 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $206 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $169 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $58 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $182 2d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 98¢ $1,647 2d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,363.22 · official $12,363.22 (match) · 378 history records