Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
17 0x1732…1c15 sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%28W / 42L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$43
14 days−$22
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$80
other 21% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -47.3% -52.3% 22% 22% -41.6%
≤30d 11 -38.2% -44.1% 27% 27% -33.2%
≤90d 70 -24.7% -31.9% 40% 40% -8.8%
all 70 -24.7% -31.9% 40% 40% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 40% -8.8%
10% -38.4% 40% -17.6%
15% -44.3% 37% -25.5%
20% -49.8% 36% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$33 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses28 / 42
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage48d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $28 +$19 +66%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $12 −$2 -20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Switzerland win on 20 Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Olimpia Milano (-9.5) Jun 05 $21 −$21 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will LASK Linz win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5 May 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 May 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Heart of Midlothian FC leading at halftime? May 13 $9 +$9 +101%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 13 $12 +$6 +47%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 13 $6 −$4 -80%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 12 $11 +$7 +65%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 May 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 May 12 $11 +$9 +86%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 12 $4 +$2 +62%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $7 +$7 +98%
Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5 May 09 $3 −$3 -99%
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 May 09 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $18 −$17 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 May 08 $19 −$19 -99%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $15 +$4 +24%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5 May 08 $10 +$9 +86%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5 May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $12 +$8 +72%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 May 06 $14 −$13 -99%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 06 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $18 +$5 +26%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $87 −$86 -99%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5 May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5 May 06 $51 +$47 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 91¢ $47 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $10 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $12 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $28 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $8 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $8 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Switzerland win on 20 SELL 81¢ $22 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Switzerland win on 20 BUY 35¢ $10 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $11 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $30 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $42 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 7d
Spread: Olimpia Milano (-9.5) BUY Olimpia Milano 48¢ $21 14d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 33d
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $14 33d
Will LASK Linz win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 33d
Will LASK Linz win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 33d
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 34d
Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 34d
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 34d
Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 34d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $13 34d
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $30 34d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 35d
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 35d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 35d
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $9 36d
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records