Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1730…4754 crypto 34 markets active 4d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-9%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$4
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -58.0% -62.0% 33% 33% -52.4%
≤30d 34 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 44% -20.6%
≤90d 34 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 44% -20.6%
all 34 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 44% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 44% -20.6%
10% -28.9% 29% -28.2%
15% -35.8% 29% -35.1%
20% -42.1% 26% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $1 +$2 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records