Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1730…52ed
world · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage278d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 −$2 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $19 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or higher on Sep Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 15 $27 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 10 $33 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12? Sep 09 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% −$2
politics 24% $0
other 16% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $47 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $49 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $48 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $48 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $43 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $2 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $41 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $9 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $30 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $16 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $23 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 11% -10.1%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 21% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 21% 7% -9.9%
all 45 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.00 · official $23.00 (match) · 136 history records