Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x172a…d0ec crypto 1176 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$130 (-4%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%662W / 514L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day59.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$192
14 days−$171
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$224
other 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 253 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 51% -20.5%
≤30d 1176 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 50% -15.8%
≤90d 1176 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 50% -15.8%
all 1176 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 50% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 50% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 44% -23.8%
15% -29.5% 38% -31.2%
20% -36.4% 32% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses662 / 514
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1176 / 1176
History coverage29d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day59.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1176 Trades
no open positions (431 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2213 history records