Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x172a…e04c politics 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,402 (-2%) realized −$1,402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%7W / 68L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$749per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$34
other 33% −$1,381
world 5% +$9
sports 3% −$27
crypto 2% +$4
culture 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -5.0% -14.1% 9% 4% -11.9%
all 75 -5.0% -14.1% 9% 4% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 4% -11.9%
10% -22.3% 4% -20.3%
15% -29.8% 4% -28.0%
20% -36.7% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,250) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$1,402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses7 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage78d
Avg bet$749
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $273 $273 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,615 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,201 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,283 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,590 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,761 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $351 +$1 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $719 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $541 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $40 +$38 +97%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $250 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $278 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $309 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $307 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $300 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $207 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $238 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $289 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $268 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $273 44m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $864 8h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $400 27h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $400 29h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $882 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $883 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $830 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $831 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $811 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $812 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $778 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $779 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $699 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $700 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $728 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $729 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $990 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $992 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $988 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $990 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $713 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $714 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $722 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $723 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $570 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $571 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $586 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.24 · official $273.24 (match) · 230 history records