Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1729…b7ac sports 709 markets active 3h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$266 (-6%) realized −$260 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%342W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$101
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$217
world 21% −$46
other 13% −$64
crypto 4% −$11
politics 3% +$22
finance 1% +$12
tech 1% −$3
weather 1% +$1
economics 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.7% -8.0% 68% 27% -13.3%
≤30d 240 -6.5% -15.4% 54% 34% -15.8%
≤90d 696 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 39% -16.0%
all 696 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 39% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 39% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 34% -24.0%
15% -30.1% 29% -31.3%
20% -37.0% 26% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$260
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses342 / 354
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions13
Markets (closed)696 / 709
History coverage51d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 76¢ 77¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 84¢ 88¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 82¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 66¢ 12¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? No 28¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $14 +$4 +28%
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $59 +$4 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $38 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7 −$2 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +63%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $19 −$3 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $52 +$6 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +13%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $58 −$37 -63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $14 −$4 -30%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $9 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $27 −$4 -15%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $25 −$3 -11%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) Jun 08 $4 +$1 +38%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $9 −$3 -28%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -8%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 08 $9 −$4 -41%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $4 +$5 +119%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $19 +$4 +19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$5 +158%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 06 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $8 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 83¢ $7 34h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $0 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $7 34h
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 83¢ $4 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $0 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 34h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 34h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 34h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 39h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $8 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.11 · official $52.98 (match) · 1821 history records