Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
17 0x1728…1224 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (561 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,125 (+9%) realized +$4,125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate72%50W / 19L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$673per market
Trades / day561.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7,927
sports 0% +$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (561 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +17.7% +6.5% 72% 67% +6.4%
≤30d 69 +17.7% +6.5% 72% 67% +6.4%
≤90d 69 +17.7% +6.5% 72% 67% +6.4%
all 69 +17.7% +6.5% 72% 67% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover561.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.5% 67% +6.4%
10% -3.7% 59% -3.8%
15% ← realistic here -13.0% 51% -13.1%
20% -21.5% 36% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$893) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$254 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,714
Realized+$4,125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses50 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage1d
Avg bet$673
Trades / day561.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 64¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $1,322 +$411 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $4,986 −$542 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $2,949 +$885 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $1,851 −$1,851 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $3,680 +$600 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $1,419 +$812 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $1,826 +$1,105 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $2,974 +$655 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $2,639 +$175 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $505 +$72 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $442 −$428 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $823 +$541 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $921 +$481 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $569 +$184 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $1,437 +$821 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $262 +$652 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $234 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $359 −$350 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $925 +$555 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $574 −$574 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $893 +$492 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $662 +$236 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $551 +$201 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $1,028 −$77 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $299 +$229 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $1,008 +$121 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $220 −$43 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $604 +$61 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $1,131 +$477 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $119 +$28 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $309 +$226 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $2,214 −$200 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $308 +$178 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $1,500 +$560 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $421 +$286 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $1,041 +$430 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $758 +$153 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $710 +$177 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $504 +$207 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $261 +$124 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $295 +$85 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $181 +$108 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $176 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$53 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $123 +$51 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$63 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,713.75 · official $1,713.76 (match) · 616 history records