Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
17 0x1727…b844 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$623 (-8%) realized −$625 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$179
14 days−$151
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$625
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -11.3% -19.7% 50% 50% -24.4%
≤90d 14 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 50% -14.6%
all 31 -12.4% -20.7% 52% 48% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 48% -17.6%
10% -28.3% 48% -25.5%
15% -35.2% 29% -32.7%
20% -41.6% 26% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$176 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$472
Realized−$625
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage185d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 94¢ 94¢ $470 $472 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $181 −$179 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $230 −$225 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $147 +$253 +172%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 11 $120 +$33 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $416 −$414 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 28 $725 +$235 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar May 15 $570 +$130 +23%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 08 $122 +$44 +36%
Magic vs. Pistons May 08 $475 +$130 +27%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $109 −$108 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $197 −$193 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $300 −$292 -97%
Hornets vs. Nets Apr 14 $428 +$31 +7%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 31 $1,027 +$273 +27%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $369 +$531 +144%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 18 $252 −$252 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 14 $324 −$324 -100%
Capitals vs. Flyers Mar 11 $364 −$364 -100%
Canadiens vs. Kings Mar 11 $69 +$81 +118%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 11 $90 +$63 +70%
Magic vs. Clippers Feb 26 $59 +$61 +104%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 23 $46 +$32 +70%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Feb 18 $77 +$22 +28%
Wild vs. Predators Feb 10 $50 +$41 +82%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Spurs vs. Hornets Jan 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 31 $36 +$54 +150%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 08 $57 −$57 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $282 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $188 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $181 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $230 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $147 14d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan BUY Katie Swan 77¢ $6 22d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan BUY Katie Swan 77¢ $4 22d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan BUY Katie Swan 78¢ $110 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 80¢ $416 28d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P BUY Movistar KOI 75¢ $725 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 81¢ $570 48d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 73¢ $122 54d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $475 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $109 64d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 30¢ $3 68d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 30¢ $194 68d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY G2 10¢ $300 72d
Hornets vs. Nets BUY Hornets 93¢ $428 86d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Clippers 79¢ $1,027 90d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Heat 41¢ $369 92d
Penguins vs. Hurricanes BUY Penguins 42¢ $252 99d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Hornets 31¢ $186 103d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Hornets 31¢ $24 103d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Hornets 31¢ $114 103d
Capitals vs. Flyers BUY Capitals 52¢ $364 106d
Canadiens vs. Kings BUY Canadiens 46¢ $69 110d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 59¢ $90 114d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY Heat 46¢ $65 119d
Magic vs. Clippers BUY Magic 49¢ $59 123d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou BUY PARIVISION 59¢ $46 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.50 · official $472.50 (match) · 56 history records