Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1727…680e other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,635 (-3%) realized −$2,652 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%133W / 34L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$410est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$8,179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$325
7 days+$255
14 days+$835
30 days+$3,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$981
other 46% −$1,310
culture 2% +$164
politics 1% −$469
world 0% −$98
weather 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 50% +57.5%
≤30d 13 +28.2% +16.0% 77% 69% +22.6%
≤90d 59 +4.7% -5.3% 68% 51% -15.1%
all 167 +10.5% -0.0% 80% 37% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 37% -12.7%
10% -9.6% 23% -21.0%
15% -18.3% 19% -28.6%
20% -26.3% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$503 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$8,179
Realized−$2,652
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses133 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$410
Open positions3
Markets (closed)167 / 170
History coverage232d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $8,019 $8,007 −$13 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $274 +$325 +119%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $63 +$72 +114%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,761 +$507 +29%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $341 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $69 +$51 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $374 +$274 +73%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2,598 +$1,133 +44%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $70 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Jun 02 $625 +$102 +16%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $348 +$43 +12%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 29 $1,568 +$32 +2%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 29 $1,001 +$853 +85%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 21 $144 −$140 -97%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $423 +$6 +1%
Will Malta come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $428 +$5 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 21 $1,288 +$27 +2%
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Vortex CGO (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders May 20 $244 −$242 -99%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 19 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $314 −$313 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $376 −$375 -100%
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 16 $474 −$469 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1,742 −$1,742 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoff May 10 $318 +$159 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $1,389 +$226 +16%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $1,421 +$2,307 +162%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 08 $347 −$347 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5,016 +$290 +6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $335 +$226 +67%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seas May 01 $513 −$513 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 26 $20 +$8 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $1,335 +$687 +52%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Heroic (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 24 $8 $0 +2%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 24 $1,028 −$64 -6%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Apr 24 $3,958 −$3,913 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 23 $1,369 +$875 +64%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs Sangal ALTERS (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Apr 20 $234 +$53 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $6,547 −$6,521 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $3,880 +$776 +20%
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 18 $396 +$416 +105%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 18 $1,061 +$354 +33%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $1,653 +$71 +4%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $3,091 +$12 +0%
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 11 $464 +$20 +4%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O Apr 09 $367 +$145 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Apr 07 $200 +$106 +53%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 07 $1,133 +$494 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1,144 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2,289 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2,289 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2,306 1h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $45 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $71 2d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 45¢ $274 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $748 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $77 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $27 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $79 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $100 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $7 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $157 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $4 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $32 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $33 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $33 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $314 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $10 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $63 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $122 8d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $298 9d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,179.38 · official $8,179.38 (match) · 1364 history records