Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1726…3986 crypto 614 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$413 (-1%) realized −$415 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%314W / 298L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$546
crypto 31% +$229
other 6% −$204
tech 1% +$99
politics 0% +$11
world 0% −$20
weather 0% +$4
finance 0% −$4
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +33.3% +20.6% 100% 100% +20.6%
≤30d 1 +33.3% +20.6% 100% 100% +20.6%
≤90d 33 -56.8% -60.9% 15% 9% -13.5%
all 612 -13.1% -21.4% 51% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 32% -10.3%
10% -28.9% 27% -18.9%
15% -35.8% 22% -26.7%
20% -42.1% 19% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$415
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses314 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)612 / 614
History coverage598d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 612 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 44¢ 71¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $81 +$27 +33%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 14 $1 −$1 -65%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 25 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $1 +$2 +224%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 22 $3 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$3 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 18 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 18 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 18 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 94¢ $108 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 50¢ $10 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 60¢ $10 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 70¢ $10 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 44¢ $5 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $50 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 1¢ $1 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 7¢ $1 9d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 42d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 42d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 42d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 44d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 44d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.25 · official $9.25 (match) · 1929 history records