Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1725…f8e2 crypto 579 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$942 (-1%) realized −$896 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%540W / 38L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$88
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,156
other 2% −$53
world 0% −$12
sports 0% +$14
finance 0% +$10
politics 0% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +3.0% -6.8% 97% 7% -7.2%
≤30d 98 +2.9% -6.9% 97% 8% -7.6%
≤90d 363 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 6% -10.0%
all 578 +0.1% -9.5% 93% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -10.2%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.8%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$159 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$896
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses540 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)578 / 579
History coverage145d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 82¢ 50¢ $120 $74 −$46 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $80 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $80 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $80 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $65 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$4 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $40 +$3 +7%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $40 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $65 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $41 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $41 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.23 · official $74.23 (match) · 2163 history records