Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1723…5460
crypto · 53 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$36 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$110 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 44¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4AM ET Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8PM ET Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET Jun 05 $37 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 05 $46 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $37 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$4 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$13 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$10 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $12 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $14 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$7 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$110
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.6% -30.9% 29% 29% -22.7%
≤30d 50 -30.3% -36.9% 30% 28% -40.9%
≤90d 50 -30.3% -36.9% 30% 28% -40.9%
all 50 -30.3% -36.9% 30% 28% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 28% -40.9%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 24% -46.5%
15% -48.5% 20% -51.7%
20% -53.5% 16% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.52 · official $3.52 (match) · 207 history records