Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1720…747f sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$213 (-4%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%66W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$103
14 days−$703
30 days−$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$156
other 4% +$44
world 2% −$107
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 48% -22.2%
≤30d 56 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 45% -45.8%
≤90d 85 -1.0% -10.5% 52% 52% -16.3%
all 128 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 50% -12.7%
10% -22.4% 49% -21.1%
15% -29.9% 43% -28.7%
20% -36.8% 31% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$32 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses66 / 62
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 132
History coverage234d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $64 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$6 +123%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$12 +226%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 −$2 -46%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $51 −$45 -89%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $63 −$52 -82%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$27 -54%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $10 −$9 -91%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $5 +$5 +105%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 +$11 +54%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$7 +64%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$5 -53%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $70 +$30 +43%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$13 +123%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $29 −$3 -10%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $20 +$15 +76%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 19 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +103%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +206%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playof Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO1) - ACL X ESL Challenger C Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $64 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 50¢ $10 15h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 61¢ $34 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL 98¢ $11 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 43¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 39h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 26¢ $3 40h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 40h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 41h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 1¢ $0 42h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 35¢ $5 42h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 35¢ $20 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 46¢ $24 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Nigma Galaxy 4¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 30¢ $51 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 10¢ $12 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 7¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $20 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 30¢ $23 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $51 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 4¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 41¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 48¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 49¢ $5 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $31 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.20 · official $63.20 (match) · 297 history records