Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x171f…d613
sports · 924 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,168 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,202 · open +$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$237
Realized−$1,202
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses484 / 406
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions37
Markets (closed)890 / 924
History coverage71d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 37 History 890 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$223
14 days−$340
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $26 $64 +$38 (+147%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 76¢ 74¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 44¢ 62¢ $10 $15 +$4 (+43%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 48¢ 55¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 85¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 96¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+26%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in MLS next? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 73¢ 86¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 77¢ 97¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+89%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+68%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 76¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$6 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 −$6 -66%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $2 +$1 +86%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $3 +$4 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +101%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $1 +$2 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +107%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -96%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 −$8 -30%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $207 −$204 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $3 +$3 +134%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +122%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +47%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $3 $0 +10%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $38 +$53 +137%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $87 +$65 +74%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $14 +$11 +73%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $2 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 +$10 +143%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 +$3 +93%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $3 $0 +7%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 −$2 -23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$1,090
other 17% −$5
world 3% −$58
culture 1% +$1
politics 1% −$12
crypto 0% +$17
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 17m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 95¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $8 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 98¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $8 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $3 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $12 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $3 5h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $3 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $2 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $1 16h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $2 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $4 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $2 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $1 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $1 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $2 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $2 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $3 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -10.9% -19.4% 51% 44% -36.5%
≤30d 276 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 42% -20.9%
≤90d 890 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 47% -16.6%
all 890 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 47% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 47% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 41% -24.5%
15% -26.4% 34% -31.8%
20% -33.6% 29% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.42 · official $237.22 (match) · 3500 history records