Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x171e…0728 crypto 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,402 (-6%) realized −$2,402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%233W / 177L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$997
7 days−$1,119
14 days−$1,274
30 days−$2,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,544
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -27.6% -34.5% 57% 26% -17.5%
≤30d 290 -19.2% -26.9% 53% 41% -18.0%
≤90d 410 -10.6% -19.1% 57% 47% -17.8%
all 410 -10.6% -19.1% 57% 47% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 47% -17.8%
10% -26.9% 46% -25.7%
15% -33.9% 43% -32.8%
20% -40.4% 35% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$83 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses233 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)410 / 410
History coverage55d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 410 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $271 +$12 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $180 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,049 +$230 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $250 −$240 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $316 −$308 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $702 +$23 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$11 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $161 +$12 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $171 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$96 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$96 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$12 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $99 −$96 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $178 +$45 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $262 +$37 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $608 +$161 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $407 +$145 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $504 +$69 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1242 history records