Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
17 0x171b…7409 politics 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,046per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$87
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 24 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 24 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$930) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,046
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,754 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $295 −$57 -19%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $908 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,837 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,842 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,705 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $930 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $836 55m
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $838 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $838 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $839 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $837 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $840 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $841 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $840 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $841 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $841 17d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $843 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $846 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $847 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $844 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $845 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $848 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $850 24d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $238 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $295 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $905 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $906 28d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $907 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $908 30d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 32d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 32d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $909 34d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $910 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records