Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1715…1179 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$299 (+6%) realized +$299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$6
other 24% −$5
sports 10% +$307
crypto 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -3.5% -12.7% 35% 15% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 15% -2.2%
10% -21.0% 15% -11.6%
15% -28.7% 12% -20.1%
20% -35.7% 12% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$2 · ×11.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.15 per $1 lost it wins $6.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$922
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage622d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $642 $642 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $280 $280 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Tigers vs. White Sox Aug 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in th Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jul 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Li May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 08 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $4 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $4 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Utah vs. Flames Jan 03 $102 +$102 +100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $101 +$106 +105%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $101 +$109 +108%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Dec 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $25 +$16 +64%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 10 $32 +$21 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $280 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $642 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $398 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $618 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $399 4h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $619 4h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 4h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 16h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,021 16h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,022 22h
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY White Sox 46¢ $6 308d
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in th BUY Yes 0¢ $1 337d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 359d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 400d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 400d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 68¢ $1 401d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $4 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $6 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 409d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 92¢ $5 411d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 412d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 414d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 99¢ $6 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $921.54 · official $921.54 (match) · 84 history records