Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1714…e6e9 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-3%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$16
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$135
sports 23% +$158
world 5% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +5.9% -4.1% 61% 45% -10.7%
≤30d 34 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 44% -12.8%
≤90d 34 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 44% -12.8%
all 34 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 44% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 44% -12.8%
10% -15.9% 35% -21.2%
15% -24.0% 35% -28.8%
20% -31.4% 24% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$35 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage8d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$27 +37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $141 +$9 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$60 +300%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 +$5 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $44 +$6 +12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$16 +45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $53 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 28h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $15 44h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $18 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.13 · official $97.13 (match) · 66 history records