Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1713…9120 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$638 (-22%) realized −$638 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$310
7 days−$346
14 days−$366
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$548
politics 12% −$124
economics 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.8% -35.6% 11% 11% -27.8%
≤30d 12 -28.0% -34.8% 17% 17% -28.4%
≤90d 13 -26.9% -33.9% 15% 15% -27.1%
all 23 -32.9% -39.3% 22% 17% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 17% -30.5%
10% -45.1% 13% -37.1%
15% -50.4% 4% -43.2%
20% -55.3% 4% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$46 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$638
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage209d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $363 −$116 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$11 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $149 +$134 +90%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $773 −$236 -30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 28 $20 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? Jun 28 $84 −$52 -62%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $120 −$31 -26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $86 −$5 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$20 -93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $113 −$18 -16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $509 −$73 -14%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $13 −$12 -92%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $44 +$8 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-14? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $56 −$48 -87%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 10 $168 −$121 -72%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 02 $164 −$6 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 50¢ $247 33m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $363 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $91 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $235 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $98 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 13¢ $172 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 13¢ $57 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $111 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $87 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $75 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $133 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $303 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $266 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $54 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $80 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 55¢ $81 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $86 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records