Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1711…0613 crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-8%) realized −$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%56W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$34
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$43
other 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.7% -5.3% 67% 48% -12.7%
≤30d 113 -14.3% -22.4% 50% 38% -18.8%
≤90d 113 -14.3% -22.4% 50% 38% -18.8%
all 113 -14.3% -22.4% 50% 38% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -18.8%
10% -29.9% 37% -26.5%
15% -36.6% 33% -33.6%
20% -42.8% 31% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses56 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $8 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 236 history records