Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x170c…a663 world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
other 25% +$1
economics 21% −$2
sports 14% −$12
politics 2% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$10
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.4% -6.4% 33% 33% -8.7%
≤30d 21 -0.4% -9.8% 43% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 36 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 3% -9.6%
all 73 -0.4% -9.8% 40% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage492d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $358 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $209 −$4 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $81 +$10 +12%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $162 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $305 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $167 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $121 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $365 +$3 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $157 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $176 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $289 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $159 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $301 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $122 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $143 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $157 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $312 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $146 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $153 −$9 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $152 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $152 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $168 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $645 +$2 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1,039 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $2,264 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $156 +$1 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $135 −$2 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 20 $23 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 9–16? May 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 29 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 29 $5 $0 -5%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $2 $0 +12%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $114 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $114 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $94 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $36 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $21 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $142 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $8 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $69 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $92 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $55 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $55 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $109 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $41 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $154 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $89 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $48 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $145 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $112 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $160 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $162 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $162 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $162 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $121 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records