Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x170b…18e1 world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$7
other 17% $0
politics 15% $0
sports 10% +$1
economics 6% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 26 -4.3% -13.4% 15% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 57 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 0% -9.7%
all 69 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage490d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 92¢ 75¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 −$2 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $204 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $100 −$3 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $70 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $66 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 07 $38 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $27 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $30 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $31 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $24 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $19 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $29 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $12 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $24 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $28 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $28 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $25 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $5 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $12 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.87 · official $0.00 · 283 history records