Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
17 0x170a…627b other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$29
sports 16% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.4% +13.4% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤30d 4 +25.4% +13.4% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤90d 4 +25.4% +13.4% 50% 50% -12.5%
all 4 +25.4% +13.4% 50% 50% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 50% -12.5%
10% +2.6% 25% -20.8%
15% -7.3% 25% -28.5%
20% -16.4% 25% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $90 −$4 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $265 −$42 -16%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $69 +$15 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $17 +$17 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 72¢ $86 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $90 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 91¢ $83 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $83 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $69 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 40¢ $33 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 25¢ $36 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $92 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records