Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
17 0x1709…abd7 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,068 (-8%) realized −$1,068 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 38L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$447
7 days−$30
14 days−$472
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$574
other 43% −$264
politics 1% −$125
sports 1% −$9
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% -10.0%
≤30d 14 -29.7% -36.4% 29% 29% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -55.7% -59.9% 14% 14% -15.4%
all 45 -42.0% -47.5% 16% 9% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 9% -16.0%
10% -52.5% 9% -24.1%
15% -57.1% 9% -31.4%
20% -61.3% 2% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$566) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$73 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,068
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage226d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,044 +$424 +41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $718 −$700 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $823 −$64 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $591 +$233 +39%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$9 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,295 +$562 +43%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,167 −$318 -27%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $598 −$159 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 10 $1,947 −$397 -20%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1,025 +$519 +51%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 29 $23 −$14 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 21 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $9 −$8 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 28 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 22 $201 −$107 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 13 $671 −$268 -40%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 25 $113 −$57 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 25 $476 −$141 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 16 $630 +$33 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 14 $502 −$65 -13%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Nov 20 $43 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 20 $44 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $44 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November? Nov 20 $44 $0 -0%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 20 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 19 $566 −$112 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Nov 16 $185 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 16 $103 −$31 -30%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $3 −$1 -50%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 11 $58 −$56 -96%
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31? Nov 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 09 $15 −$3 -17%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 08 $15 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,468 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,044 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $718 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $759 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $823 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $824 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $287 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $94 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,857 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,295 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $849 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $146 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 23¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 9¢ $21 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 10¢ $21 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 1¢ $21 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $238 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,004 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $201 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $598 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $593 10d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 48¢ $7 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,295 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $382 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records