Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1708…3222 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$1
world 31% −$2
politics 17% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% +$3
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 7 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -1.8% -11.2% 20% 0% -10.2%
all 39 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage283d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $30 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $18 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 -0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $7 +$3 +35%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $22 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $30 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $29 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $3 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $9 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $20 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $30 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $21 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $10 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $17 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $33 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $30 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $28 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 32d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 93¢ $30 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $22 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $9 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records